A weblog by Tom Coates concerning future media, social software and the web of data
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0sil8 rules in secret...

Posted December 5, 2001 12:20 AM.

So I was talking to a friend who's involved in those weird industries that predict trends and developments and we start talking about the mid-future. Mid-future is, apparently, ten-to-twenty years from now. And we were talking about Bill Gates' claim that we always overestimate technological developments that will happen within ten years, and always underestimate those that will happen within twenty. Gates' theory being an interesting analogue of Chaos theory in a sense, in that the tiny developments that happen now may prove to be the most significant and transformative. And about half an hour into the conversation, said friend gets kind of mysterious and smug-looking and I don't know why. Apparently it's got something to do with something called Danza. But he wouldn't tell me any more...

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